Here’s our podcast on the topic[soundcloud url=”https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/308257937″ params=”color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=true&show_user=true&show_reposts=false” width=”100%” height=”166″ iframe=”true” /]
It’s only day 2 of the NC State basketball “coaching search even though we still have a coach through the end of the season” and I’m already at wits end. I’m sure I’m not the only one either. It’s just that time of year again when the national media tells the world how crazy we are to want to be better than the status quo. It’s exhausting. It’s also a lazy narrative that guys like Gary Parish, Jeff Goodman, et al will beat down our throats no matter what but I’ll get back to them. It was Jay Bilas who I didn’t expect to come at us like he did this morning.
The Indiana University podcast gets its.
It really is unreasonable of NC State fans and administrators to aspire to do better than the status quo. How silly of them. https://t.co/4OBkhMMxS8
— CrimsonCast (@CrimsonCast) February 17, 2017
But back to Bilas….here’s one of his tweets at us.
Also a fact, in the 20 years prior to Gottfried's arrival at NC State, the 'Pack went to 5 NCAA Tournaments, winning 5 games, 1 Sweet 16.
— Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) February 17, 2017
Well, all those things are true but as news goes these days you can consider them ‘alternative facts.’ Mark Gottfried was not fired for his past performance, he was fired for the direction the program was headed. For those that struggle to understand this, we put a little chart together. This is Mark Gottfried’s ACC win percentage (including current year 3-11).
I’m not sure I need to put anymore numbers together but I will to drive this point home.
Where was NC State basketball going to go after this season if they kept Gottfried? That's the reason he has no job, not his track record.
— Austin Johnson (@austin_johnson) February 17, 2017
Time to play…NC STATE NATIONAL MEDIA TAKE BINGO!!! pic.twitter.com/S8ZDAwJWkI
— Joe Ovies (@joeovies) February 17, 2017
Here’s another one the national media loves and Bilas fell in line with this morning…
Also a fact, during Gottfried's tenure, Duke and UNC: 5 NCAA bids. NC State, UVa, UofL and Syracuse: 4 NCAA bids. Rest of ACC: 3 or fewer.
— Jay Bilas (@JayBilas) February 17, 2017
We’ve said it about 100 times on the podcast. It’s all about what you use to define your metric for success. In life and in business, you wouldn’t go through your day-to-day routine if you didn’t have a metric for success. Whether it be more sales or in the media’s case, more clicks, you have define your target and how you measure success.
For a program that has two national titles, multiple-ACC Championships, NCAA tournaments appearances is not the metric that defines success for the fan base. We are steeped with ACC history and folks on Tobacco road, sans Roy, hold the ACC Tournament and ACC Championships in the highest regard. Folks on the outside don’t get that. We, Dustin and I, believe that metric for success is competing in the ACC. That doesn’t mean that you should be winning the ACC every year, no one has that expectation despite what the fake news would lead you to believe. Competing means fighting to be in the top-5 of the ACC on a regular basis. If you’re doing that then you’re doing enough to be a top 25 program and every once in a while the stars will align and you’ll be fighting for the ACC Championship. **Side note, I wish someone with access would ask Debbie Yow what her metric for success is for basketball.**
Gary Parish’s article (which we will not link to because of the excessive ads and autoplay videos) used, Jim Larranaga as a comparison for Mark Gottfried as they were hired at similar time.
Mark Gottfried and Jim Larranaga got hired 17 days apart at NC State and Miami back in 2011. When this season is over, Gottfried will have made four NCAA Tournaments and two Sweet 16s. And he got fired two days after Valentine’s Day. Meantime, even if Larranaga makes the NCAA Tournament this season, his first six years at Miami will amount to three NCAA Tournament appearances and, more than likely, two Sweet 16s. And Larranaga has a contract through 2022 that nobody has even thought of buying out. He couldn’t be more comfortable in Coral Gables.
Two ACC jobs.
So what is wrong with this statement? In theory, nothing as it makes sense but Gary fails to mention that Larranaga has won an ACC Title, their first in school history, of course he’s safe from persecution. In addition, one of those two men did not go 5-13 last year with a similar result on the horizon this year. It is short sighted and lazy.
@RedWhitePodcast he compared to Larranaga. That's not apples to apples. If he had the same talent and performed as poorly, he'd be gone too
— Andrew Siler (@lil_siler012) February 17, 2017
More from ESPN – ‘You’re not going to compete with the likes of Duke and UNC talent-wise’
<iframe width=”640″ height=”360″ src=”http://www.espn.com/core/video/iframe?id=18700506&endcard=false” allowfullscreen frameborder=”0″></iframe>
Ahh this is the other one that gets thrown anytime basketball gets mentioned. Alec Lower at BackingthePack said this
Over the last five years State’s recruiting classes have had an average finish (according to 247sports.com) of 20.8. This is actually higher than UNC’s average finish of 22.8 and reasonably close to Duke’s 9.8 over the same time period. Gottfried has proven talent acquisition is a total non-issue in Raleigh
For those of you who need pretty visuals…..
As you can see, Gottman could recruit, on par with the top programs in the area and even a bit better than UNC over the same period….
The problem then appears with the output from those recruiting classes. An average of 7.6 wins why the Heels and Devils were 12 and 12.4 respectively.
If you think State fan wanting consistency is asking for too much b/c of Sweet 16s, then you're just set on thinking State fan is crazy.
— Lauren Brownlow (@lebrownlow) February 17, 2017
And I’ll leave you with this one from @JamesCurle
My standing response to most columns from national media in regards to our coaching search: pic.twitter.com/JkxNXtIkCc
— James Curle (@JamesCurle) February 17, 2017
Referenced spreadsheet regarding team youth from Anonymous Spreadsheet Ninja
Referenced spreadsheet and post – Was the defense really that good!?
Watching our team dominate Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl, I loved seeing our front 6 dominate the line of scrimmage against an ACC opponent. With the news that Josh Jones is going pro, and Bradley Chubb may soon follow, I wanted to look reflect on this year’s biggest success as a jumping off point for next year’s team. NC State’s defense was ranked number 4 nationally against the run in 2016, which is quite a feat, and it provides a great talking point for the coaching staff during final recruiting push.
But was our defense elite against the run in 2016, or is there more to the story when you sift through the numbers? According to www.teamrankings.com NC State played the 32 nd hardest overall schedule in 2016, and our out of conference strength of schedule was ranked 51 st . It should be noted that those rankings include our bowl game against Vanderbilt. Given how weak our out of conference schedule turned out to be this year, I decided to look at our 8 conference games this season and compare NC State’s defense to its peers. In my opinion, this was the best way to do an apples to apples comparison because these statistics were generated playing against the teams we are comparing NC State to.
In conference play, NC State was not the number one ranked rushing defense based on average rushing yards/game. Louisville was number one with 103.9 yards/game and NC State was second with 108.8yards per game in their 8 conference games. To NC State’s credit, they did hold teams to a 3.4 yards/carry average over those 8 conference games, which was the second best only behind Louisville.
It should be noted though, that NC State may have had the second lowest rushing yards per game because the NC State defense faced the fewest number of rushing attempts (258) in the ACC during conference play.
In terms of total defense in conference play, NC State was quite average, finishing at number seven with 403.1 yards per game. NC State had the second worst ACC pass defense at 294.4 yards/game, finishing only ahead of Pitt who gave up 360.8 yards/game in the air. NC State faced the second most pass attempts in ACC play (309), again only finishing ahead of Pitt (368). So, it is fair to say that ACC Offensive Coordinators chose to abandon the run game in favor of the passing game, picking on NC State’s passing defense that was ranked 9 th in ACC pass defense efficiency.
At the end of the day, the goal of the defense is to prevent the other team from scoring and in ACC play NC State gave up 25.9 points per game, good for 7 th in the conference, the same ranking we achieved in total defense based on yards/game. This mediocrity is even more amazing when you dig deeper into our red zone defense. Our red zone defensive efficiency was ranked 11 th in the ACC allowing opponents to score 87.9% of the time they entered the red zone. NC State actually gave up 135 points in the red zone, ranked tenth, only finishing ahead of Pitt, BC, UNC-Ch, and Syracuse. Only UNC-CH, Syracuse, and Pitt allowed more trips to the red zone in conference games than NC State. The one bright spot is that NC State had the lowest touchdown percentage of all of the ACC teams, at 48.5%, but opposing kicker were 13-14 in FG attempts, which leads us to a different discussion about kicking.
After reviewing the statistics, it is reasonable to conclude that the overall NC State defense was just average in conference play; the result of an above average run defense and a below average pass defense. If Dave Doeren wants to improve his 9-23 career ACC record or his 1-22*record against Power 5 Schools with a winning record, his coaching staff will need to improve the defense against the pass.
This may be a tall order given the loss of Josh Jones and potential loss of Bradley Chubb, who accounted for approximately 1/3 of NC State’s sacks in conference play.
*Possibly 2-22 if Wake wins their bowl game today.
Here is the referenced spreadsheet
Dave Doeren has a chance to save his job
Mark Gottfriend still doesnt coach defense.
Evan explains the great opossum jihad of 2016